"We still believe the most likely outcome is slow growth and firm inflation: Not a recession, but a backdrop where the adverse effects of trade and immigration controls on growth outweigh the boost from deregulation and fiscal largesse," Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas wrote.

President Donald Trump’s vows to roll out punishing new tariffs on Aug. 1 have barely made a ripple with investors who are convinced he’ll once again back down. But at the White House, officials insist they’re serious this time.